0410L-TUESDAY OUTLOOK FROM GARFIELD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 5/9/23

* Today could be interesting if certain model guidance comes true. Right now models are NOT in total agreement but here is an educated guess based on discussions at 2 NWS offices. THIS MORNING- slight chance for t-storms along the OK/KS border. If these form, they shouldn’t last too long and move ENE. These could form as far south as we are.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON- many variables: the CAP: that layer of warm air at around 4 to 5000 feet that inhibits storm initiation, the DRYLINE- where it sets up and it’s eastward movement, the WARM FRONT: where it will actually be later this afternoon, and HIGH CLOUDS moving into the area and how that could affect initiation of storms later today. ALL THIS SAID, IF any storms fire anywhere in the area today, they could be SEVERE.

* The atmosphere is unstable and moist. Forcing of these air masses is weak so if a storm can get going and become severe, large hail, damaging winds, and torrential rainfall will be the main threats. We’ll have to wait and see what happens and where for sure.

* OVERALL, we’ll be ok so stay weather aware. Here is your forecast from the NWS/NORMAN;

*Today- Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph, increasing to around 15 mph this afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight- Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Lows in the lower 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

* Be sure to download our GARFIELD COUNTY EM app. NWS warnings and advisories automatically come through our app “in detail”. It is a great tool and it’s loaded with great info to get you and your family prepared!

HAVE A GOOD DAY!